Oxaliplatin, Gemcitabine, and Erlotinib Study in Patients With Advanced Chemo-naïve Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-07-31, after 2008-01-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapypriorfunctionto determine
Phrases that lowered it: oxaliplatinin clinicalclinical trialbetween 18study -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- not given (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6171 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1978 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, gemcitabine, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Gemcitabine-erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine-erlotinib-capecitabine in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01303029 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study of Erlotinib, Gemcitabine and Oxaliplatin Combination Chemotherapy to Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01505413 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Study of Gemcitabine/Taxotere/Xeloda (GTX) in Combination With Cisplatin and Irinotecan in Subjects With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02324543 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine With or Without Capecitabine and/or Radiation Therapy or Gemcitabine With or Without Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT00634725 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine, Capecitabine, and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT00885066 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.