Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) Trap-Eye: Investigation of Efficacy and Safety in Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: study eyemacularamdlesionvegf
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacydiseasesefficacy andand safety20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 193 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 681 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of the Effects of High Dose Aflibercept Injected Into the Eye of Patients With an Age-related Disorder That Causes Loss of Vision Due to Growth of Abnormal Blood Vessels at the Back of the Eye NCT04423718 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study of MP0112 Intravitreal Injection in Patients With Wet Age Related Macular Degeneration NCT01086761 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Ranibizumab Administered Monthly or on an As-needed Basis in Patients With Subfoveal Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration (HARBOR) NCT00891735 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Biosimilar Candidate Xlucane Versus Lucentis® in Patients With nAMD NCT03805100 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Aflibercept in Patients With Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration NCT05587062 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.