Effect of Statin Therapy on C-reactive Protein Levels in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (COPD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-08-31, after 2008-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: 000cellscopdtherapypatients
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofsmokersimvastatinbloodlast months -
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6983 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 79 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 79 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 26084 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6983 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- simvastatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Simvastatin for the Treatment of COPD NCT02070133 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Simvastatin Therapy for Moderate and Severe COPD NCT01061671 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
- The Effects of Simvastatin on Th17 Cytokines and Th17 Polarizing Cytokine in COPD Patients NCT01944176 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Effect of Rosuvastatin Therapy in Patients With Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT00929734 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Lovastatin as a Potential Modulator of Apoptosis in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT00700921 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.