A Randomized, Double-blind Comparison of Morphine and Sufentanil for Prehospital Traumatic Severe Acute Pain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2008-09-30, after 2008-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painopioidmorphineanalgesiadefined
Phrases that lowered it: patientsclinical trialcomparisoninjectionobjective -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 10375 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10375 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2103 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- morphine, sufentanil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Intravenous Subdissociative-dose Ketamine Versus Morphine for Prehospital Analgesia NCT03236805 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
- A Comparison of Three Regimens of Acute Pain Management: Methoxyflurane; Intranasal Fentanyl; Intravenous Morphine NCT05137184 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Open-Label Safety and Efficacy of the Sufentanil Sublingual Tablet 30 mcg for Acute Pain NCT02447848 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Fentanyl to Reduce the Time of Severe Postoperative Pain Relief Compared to Morphine NCT02145975 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Fentanyl OR Esketamine for Traumatic PAIN (FORE-PAIN) Trial NCT06051227 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.