A Comparison of Three Regimens of Acute Pain Management: Methoxyflurane; Intranasal Fentanyl; Intravenous Morphine
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-04-22, after 2021-11-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ivintravenouschronic kidneyhourshospital
Phrases that lowered it: painpatientsparticipantsnasalarm -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 244 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 288941 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 244 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 59 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 288941 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 38353 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 33.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fentanyl, methoxyflurane, morphine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Methoxyflurane vs Standard Analgesic Treatment for Trauma Pain in Spanish Emergency Units NCT03256903 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Randomized, Double-blind Comparison of Morphine and Sufentanil for Prehospital Traumatic Severe Acute Pain NCT00656773 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Methoxyflurane (Penthrox) for the Treatment of Acute Pain in Minor Trauma NCT01420159 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Inhaled vs IV Opioid Dosing for the Initial Treatment of Severe Acute Pain in the Emergency Department NCT03257319 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial Comparing Two Protocols Using Intravenous (IV) Hydromorphone NCT01311895 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.