Methoxyflurane vs Standard Analgesic Treatment for Trauma Pain in Spanish Emergency Units

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painheadtrialanalgesicprior
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicallypatientstraumaclinicalopen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Methoxyflurane (Penthrox) for the Treatment of Acute Pain in Minor Trauma NCT01420159 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Comparison of Three Regimens of Acute Pain Management: Methoxyflurane; Intranasal Fentanyl; Intravenous Morphine NCT05137184 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Trauma Acute Pain Treatment With Methoxyflurane Vaporized (PENTHROX®): Efficacy and Safety Study (MEDITA) NCT03585374 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study on the Use of Methoxyflurane (Penthrox®) for Pain Control in the Emergency Department NCT04618497 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Methoxyflurane Analgesia for Paediatric Injuries NCT03215056 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.