A Multiple Ascending Dose Study of Daclatasvir (BMS-790052) in Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 1 Infected Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingpurposetreatmentprimaryin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: genotypepharmacokinetics ofbmievaluate thehepatitis virus
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Daclatasvir (BMS-790052) Add-on to Standard of Care in Treatment- naïve Patients NCT01125189 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Daclatasvir (BMS-790052) Plus Standard of Care in Japanese Patients (Pegylated-interferon Alpha-2a and Ribavirin) NCT01017575 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Daclatasvir (BMS-790052) Plus Standard of Care (Pegylated-interferon Alpha and Ribavirin) NCT00874770 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Evaluation of Daclatasvir and Asunaprevir in Treatment-naive Subjects With Chronic Hepatitis C Genotype 1b Infection NCT02496078 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of a Regimen Consisting of Peginterferon Lambda-1a + Ribavirin + Daclatasvir (Lambda + RBV + DCV) in HCV Genotype 1b Treatment naïve Patients or Prior Relapsers to Peginterferon Alfa + Ribavirin (Alfa + RBV) Therapy NCT01718158 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.