Subjective Study to Assess the Efficacy of APD125 in Patients With Sleep Maintenance Insomnia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: primarytimedefinedivpatient
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthygoodthe efficacyhealth
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of JNJ-42847922 in Participants With Insomnia Disorder Without Psychiatric Comorbidity NCT02464046 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Almorexant (ACT 078573) in Adult Subjects With Chronic Primary Insomnia NCT00608985 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy Study of Compound LY2624803 in the Treatment of Patients With Chronic Insomnia NCT00784875 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Sleep Laboratory Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Neu-P11 in Primary Insomnia Patients NCT01489969 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Comparison of IN 10 003 to Placebo in Subjects With Insomnia Suffering From Difficulty in Falling Asleep and Staying Asleep NCT01196650 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.