Minocycline in Clinically Isolated Syndromes (CIS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebomssclerosismridouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: womenabsoluteadequatediseaselesion
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1514 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Minocycline in MS: Confirmation of Benefit NCT04291456 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Neuroprotection and Repair in Optic Neuritis NCT01073813 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• MS-SMART: Multiple Sclerosis-Secondary Progressive Multi-Arm Randomisation Trial NCT01910259 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Rebif, Copaxone, and Tysabri for Active Multiple Sclerosis NCT01058005 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• A Phase IIIb, Multicenter, International Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of EK-12 in Patients With RRMS NCT03283397 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.