Minocycline in MS: Confirmation of Benefit
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-12-31, after 2020-01-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mripatientbrainpatientscell
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantclinical90to evaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 185 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 57 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 11637 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1615 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- minocycline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Minocycline in Clinically Isolated Syndromes (CIS) NCT00666887 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- MS-SMART: Multiple Sclerosis-Secondary Progressive Multi-Arm Randomisation Trial NCT01910259 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating Rebif, Copaxone, and Tysabri for Active Multiple Sclerosis NCT01058005 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Efficacy and Safety of M2951 in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02975349 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- A Clinical Study of the Efficacy of Natalizumab on Reducing Disability Progression in Participants With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416181 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.