A Study of Efficacy and Safety of M2951 in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-04-02, after 2017-03-07 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 24.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: typecelldiabetesweekspatient
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantallergyhistoryvirus -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 62642 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13326 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 24.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dimethyl, evobrutinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ofatumumab Dose-finding in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Patients NCT00640328 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Phase IIIb, Multicenter, International Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of EK-12 in Patients With RRMS NCT03283397 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Effect of SAR443820 on Serum Neurofilament Levels in Male and Female Adult Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT05630547 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Safety, Tolerability and Activity Study of Ibudilast in Subjects With Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01982942 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Ofatumumab Subcutaneous Administration in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01457924 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.