A Study to Evaluate the Effect of SAR443820 on Serum Neurofilament Levels in Male and Female Adult Participants With Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-11-21, after 2022-12-19 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ulnallowedconcurrentbilirubinserum
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantopen labelthe effectmale -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1040 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1040 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 74 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nonrelapsing Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (NRSPMS) Study of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) (HERCULES) NCT04411641 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (PPMS) Study of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) (PERSEUS) NCT04458051 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Dose-finding Study for SAR442168 in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT03889639 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis (RMS) Study of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) (GEMINI 1) NCT04410978 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- A Study of Efficacy and Safety of M2951 in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02975349 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.