Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (PPMS) Study of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) (PERSEUS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboscreeningmultiple sclerosisevidencemri
  Phrases that lowered it: participantand safetyparticipantsefficacy andvaccine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 975 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nonrelapsing Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (NRSPMS) Study of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) (HERCULES) NCT04411641 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis (RMS) Study of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) (GEMINI 1) NCT04410978 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study for SAR442168 in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT03889639 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of SAR443820 on Serum Neurofilament Levels in Male and Female Adult Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT05630547 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis (RMS) Study of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) (GEMINI 2) NCT04410991 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.