A Phase III Superiority Study of Vernakalant vs Amiodarone in Subjects With Recent Onset Atrial Fibrillation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularatrialsubjects within subjectscoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: objectiveto comparecompare thesafety ofknown or
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3b Study of Vernakalant Injection in Patients With Recent Onset Symptomatic Atrial Fibrillation (AF)(MK-6621-045) NCT00989001 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Vernakalant Hydrochloride (MK-6621) in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (MK-6621-010 AM4) NCT01174160 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Vanoxerine for the Conversion of Subjects With Recent Onset Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter to Normal Sinus Rhythm NCT02454283 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Vanoxerine for Conversion of Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter to Normal Sinus Rhythm NCT01691313 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Ranolazine in Atrial Fibrillation Following An ELectricaL CardiOversion NCT01534962 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.