Safety and Efficacy of Vanoxerine for the Conversion of Subjects With Recent Onset Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter to Normal Sinus Rhythm

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationonsetsubject hasmmhgprior
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateecgsurgeryoral
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Vanoxerine for Conversion of Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter to Normal Sinus Rhythm NCT01691313 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Superiority Study of Vernakalant vs Amiodarone in Subjects With Recent Onset Atrial Fibrillation NCT00668759 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of Ranolazine and Dronedarone When Given Alone and in Combination in Patients With Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation NCT01522651 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3b Study of Vernakalant Injection in Patients With Recent Onset Symptomatic Atrial Fibrillation (AF)(MK-6621-045) NCT00989001 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of HSY244 in Participants With Atrial Fibrillation NCT04582409 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.