A Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral Dimebon in Patients With Mild-To-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseaseto determineivunstablereceptor
  Phrases that lowered it: inclusiveefficacyclinical trialdrugspatients
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study Evaluating Dimebon in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Donepezil NCT00829374 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Efficacy Study Of Dimebon In Patients With Moderate To Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT00912288 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 3 Study To Evaluate The Safety And Tolerability Of Dimebon Patients With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00838110 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study Evaluating Dimebon (Latrepirdine) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT00954590 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability of Dimebon in Patients on Memantine, and Memantine Plus Donepezil NCT00829816 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.