A Phase 3 Study To Evaluate The Safety And Tolerability Of Dimebon Patients With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebotolerabilityischemicbrainstable
  Phrases that lowered it: 20alzheimer60 daysmoderatedays prior
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 318 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral Dimebon in Patients With Mild-To-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00675623 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Efficacy Study Of Dimebon In Patients With Moderate To Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT00912288 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study Evaluating Dimebon in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Donepezil NCT00829374 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Dimebon in Patients on Memantine, and Memantine Plus Donepezil NCT00829816 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Study of Combination Therapy With Dimebon and Donepezil (Aricept) in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT00704782 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.