A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Ocrelizumab in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mricancersclerosisphase iiin situ
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningand safetyevaluate theto evaluatesafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01194570 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Who Have Had a Suboptimal Response to an Adequate Course of Disease-Modifying Treatment (DMT) NCT02861014 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Early Stage Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT03085810 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Study To Investigate The Pharmacokinetics, Safety, And Tolerability Of Subcutaneous Ocrelizumab Administration In Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT03972306 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effects of Ocrelizumab on Immune Responses In Participants With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT02545868 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.