A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsclerosiscancermrirelapsing
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyevaluate theefficacy andat screeningsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 399 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Ocrelizumab in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT00676715 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Who Have Had a Suboptimal Response to an Adequate Course of Disease-Modifying Treatment (DMT) NCT02861014 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study To Investigate The Pharmacokinetics, Safety, And Tolerability Of Subcutaneous Ocrelizumab Administration In Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT03972306 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Early Stage Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT03085810 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Ocrelizumab in Comparison With Interferon Beta-1a (Rebif) in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT01412333 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.