A Study of Ocrelizumab in Comparison With Interferon Beta-1a (Rebif) in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-12-30, after 2011-09-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebosclerosisdoubleblindrelapsing
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofparticipantsevaluate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15855 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 193 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 59833 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 444 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.9%
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 193 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 59833 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 15855 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- interferon beta1a, ocrelizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Ocrelizumab in Comparison With Interferon Beta-1a (Rebif) in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT01247324 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Ocrelizumab in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT00676715 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01194570 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Study of Evobrutinib in Participants With RMS NCT04032171 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
- Study of Evobrutinib in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (RMS) NCT04032158 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.