LOGiC - Lapatinib Optimization Study in ErbB2 (HER2) Positive Gastric Cancer: A Phase III Global, Blinded Study Designed to Evaluate Clinical Endpoints and Safety of Chemotherapy Plus Lapatinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomasubjects withcancermetastaticchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: trialpatientsaccordinghormonalrange
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 10361 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4300 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Trastuzumab in Combination With Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin as First-line Chemotherapy for Inoperable, Locally Advanced or Recurrent and/or Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT01364493 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study of Trastuzumab Emtansine Versus Taxane in Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Advanced Gastric Cancer NCT01641939 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• Epirubicin Hydrochloride, Cisplatin, and Fluorouracil or Capecitabine With or Without Lapatinib Ditosylate as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Stomach Cancer or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT01123473 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Trastuzumab in Combination With Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin(XELOX) in Patients With Advanced Gastric Cancer(AGC): Her+XELOX NCT01396707 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study of 5-FU, Oxaliplatin, & Lapatinib Combined With Radiation Therapy to Treat HER2 Positive Esophagogastric Cancer NCT01769508 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.