PTH & Ibandronate Combination Study (PICS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (48 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbonestagemelanomatherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: daytype diabetesageddailyoral
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 34.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 423 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Six-month Phase 2 Study of Oral hPTH(1-34) (EBP05) in Postmenopausal Women With Low Bone Mass NCT04003467 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Denosumab and Ibandronate in Postmenopausal Women Sub-Optimally Treated With Daily or Weekly Bisphosphonates NCT00936897 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Oral Calcitonin to Nasal Spray Calcitonin in Postmenopausal Osteoporotic Women NCT00959764 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Atenolol for the Prevention of Osteoporosis (APO) NCT04905277 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Transiliac Crest Bone Histology and Histomorphometry Study in Postmenopausal Women With Low Bone Mass or Osteoporosis Previously Treated With Denosumab NCT00887965 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.