A Study Comparing Oral Calcitonin to Nasal Spray Calcitonin in Postmenopausal Osteoporotic Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-02-28, after 2009-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationbonescanuncontrolledpatient
Phrases that lowered it: asthmanasaloralalcoholallergic -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 45 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 109 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 34 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- calcitonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Oral Recombinant Salmon Calcitonin (rsCT) to Prevent Postmenopausal Osteoporosis NCT01292187 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Six-month Phase 2 Study of Oral hPTH(1-34) (EBP05) in Postmenopausal Women With Low Bone Mass NCT04003467 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- PTH & Ibandronate Combination Study (PICS) NCT00683163 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Denosumab China Phase III Study NCT02014467 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Denosumab and Ibandronate in Postmenopausal Women Sub-Optimally Treated With Daily or Weekly Bisphosphonates NCT00936897 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.