A Study Evaluating Epoetin Alfa 40,000 IU (International Units) Every Week or 80,000 IU Every Week Compared to Placebo in Patients With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes at Risk for Transfusion

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellmarrowrandomizationfailureanemia
  Phrases that lowered it: weekstudythe investigatorcriteriaclinically significant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 281 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy Study for Epoetin Alfa in Anemic Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT01381809 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Anemia With Epoetin Beta in Low Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT02428686 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Roxadustat for Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Low Red Blood Cell Transfusion Burden NCT03263091 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing Siltuximab Plus Best Supportive Care to Placebo Plus Best Supportive Care in Anemic Patients With International Prognostic Scoring System Low- or Intermediate-1-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT01513317 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• SIMIDIS: Azacitidine and Beta Erythropoietin Treatment in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT00495547 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.