Efficacy and Safety of Roxadustat for Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Low Red Blood Cell Transfusion Burden

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellregistrationboneradiationmarrow
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labelscreeningand safetysignificant
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of FG-4592 for Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT03303066 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating Epoetin Alfa 40,000 IU (International Units) Every Week or 80,000 IU Every Week Compared to Placebo in Patients With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes at Risk for Transfusion NCT00695396 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Study to Separately Evaluate the Activity of Talacotuzumab (JNJ-56022473) or Daratumumab in Transfusion-Dependent Participants With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) Who Are Relapsed or Refractory to Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agent (ESA) Treatment NCT03011034 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Siltuximab Plus Best Supportive Care to Placebo Plus Best Supportive Care in Anemic Patients With International Prognostic Scoring System Low- or Intermediate-1-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT01513317 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Evaluating Low-dose Deferasirox (DFX) in Patients With Low-risk MDS Resistant or Relapsing After ESA Agents NCT03387475 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.