Efficacy and Safety of FG-4592 for Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mdscellmyelodysplasticanemiadl
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatestudy tosubjectsday
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Roxadustat for Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Low Red Blood Cell Transfusion Burden NCT03263091 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Evaluating Low-dose Deferasirox (DFX) in Patients With Low-risk MDS Resistant or Relapsing After ESA Agents NCT03387475 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Drug Levels and Safety of Luspatercept (ACE-536) for the Treatment of Anemia Due to IPSS-R Very Low, Low, or Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes in Chinese and Japanese Participants With Ring Sideroblasts Who Require Red Blood Cell Transfusions NCT04477850 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib Study of Select Drug Combinations in Patients With Lower Risk MDS NCT04810611 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating Epoetin Alfa 40,000 IU (International Units) Every Week or 80,000 IU Every Week Compared to Placebo in Patients With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes at Risk for Transfusion NCT00695396 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.