A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Drug Levels and Safety of Luspatercept (ACE-536) for the Treatment of Anemia Due to IPSS-R Very Low, Low, or Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes in Chinese and Japanese Participants With Ring Sideroblasts Who Require Red Blood Cell Transfusions

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: refractorypriorcellagentscells
  Phrases that lowered it: japanesebloodand safetysafety ofefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 52.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 208 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Luspatercept (ACE-536) to Treat Anemia Due to Very Low, Low, or Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT02631070 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Study of Luspatercept for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) (MK-6143-001) NCT01749514 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Siltuximab Plus Best Supportive Care to Placebo Plus Best Supportive Care in Anemic Patients With International Prognostic Scoring System Low- or Intermediate-1-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT01513317 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of FG-4592 for Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT03303066 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Roxadustat for Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Low Red Blood Cell Transfusion Burden NCT03263091 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.