Study of Luspatercept for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) (MK-6143-001)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientmdspatients mustdefined aspotential
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatorscreeningdaybloodhepatitis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Extension Study to Evaluate Long-Term Effects of Luspatercept in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) (A536-05/MK-6143-003) NCT02268383 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study of Luspatercept (ACE-536) to Treat Anemia Due to Very Low, Low, or Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT02631070 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Study of Etavopivat for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT05568225 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Fostamatinib for the Treatment of Lower-risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes or Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia Who Have Failed Therapy With Hypomethylating Agents NCT05030675 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Eltrombopag Plus Lenalidomide Combination Therapy in Patients With IPSS Low and Intermediate-risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Isolated del5q NCT02928419 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.