A Study of Etavopivat for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartriskanemiasubjecttherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatehepatitisopen labelvisitmale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Luspatercept (ACE-536) for the Treatment of Anemia Due to IPSS-R Very Low, Low or Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) in Japanese Subjects Who Are Not Requiring Red Blood Cell Transfusion NCT03900715 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Study of TP-0184 to Treat Anemia in Adults With IPSS-R Low or Intermediate Risk MDS NCT04623996 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Study of Luspatercept for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) (MK-6143-001) NCT01749514 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics Study of SyB L-1101 in Patients With Recurrent/Relapsed or Refractory Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT01700335 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Canakinumab for the Treatment of Anemia in LR-MDS Patients NCT05237713 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.