An Efficacy and Safety Study of Luspatercept (ACE-536) for the Treatment of Anemia Due to IPSS-R Very Low, Low or Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) in Japanese Subjects Who Are Not Requiring Red Blood Cell Transfusion

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasbleedingsubjectsmdssubject is
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsprostatethe studyjapaneseinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 179 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Eltrombopag Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Subjects With Advanced Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) or Secondary Acute Myeloid Leukemia After MDS (sAML/MDS) NCT00903422 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Eltanexor (KPT-8602) With Inqovi (Decitabine-Cedazuridine) in High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT05918055 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Etavopivat for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT05568225 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• A Safety and Efficacy Study to Evaluate Luspatercept in Subjects With Myeloproliferative Neoplasm-associated Myelofibrosis Who Have Anemia With and Without Red Blood Cell-transfusion Dependence NCT03194542 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• A Three-part Study of Eltrombopag in Thrombocytopenic Subjects With Myelodysplastic Syndromes or Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT01440374 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.