A Safety and Efficacy Study to Evaluate Luspatercept in Subjects With Myeloproliferative Neoplasm-associated Myelofibrosis Who Have Anemia With and Without Red Blood Cell-transfusion Dependence

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltransplanttherapydlmarrow
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetybloodefficacy andsafety ofpharmacokinetics
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Luspatercept With or Without Hydroxyurea for the Treatment of Myelodysplastic/Myeloproliferative Neoplasms With Ring Sideroblasts and Thrombocytosis or Unclassifiable With Ring Sideroblasts NCT05005182 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Fedratinib Compared to Best Available Therapy in Subjects With DIPSS-intermediate or High-risk Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis and Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib NCT03952039 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Luspatercept in Adults With Non Transfusion Dependent Beta (β)-Thalassemia NCT03342404 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Luspatercept (ACE-536) Versus Placebo in Adults Who Require Regular Red Blood Cell Transfusions Due to Beta (β) Thalassemia NCT02604433 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Luspatercept (ACE-536) for the Treatment of Anemia Due to IPSS-R Very Low, Low or Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) in Japanese Subjects Who Are Not Requiring Red Blood Cell Transfusion NCT03900715 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.