An Efficacy and Safety Study of Luspatercept (ACE-536) Versus Placebo in Adults Who Require Regular Red Blood Cell Transfusions Due to Beta (β) Thalassemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartmyocardialfailuretherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofperiodmale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 58 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Luspatercept in Adults With Non Transfusion Dependent Beta (β)-Thalassemia NCT03342404 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study to Evaluate Luspatercept in Subjects With Myeloproliferative Neoplasm-associated Myelofibrosis Who Have Anemia With and Without Red Blood Cell-transfusion Dependence NCT03194542 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Extension Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Luspatercept in Participants With β-Thalassemia Previously Enrolled in A536-04 (A536-06/MK-6143-004) NCT02268409 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Luspatercept With or Without Hydroxyurea for the Treatment of Myelodysplastic/Myeloproliferative Neoplasms With Ring Sideroblasts and Thrombocytosis or Unclassifiable With Ring Sideroblasts NCT05005182 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate Setanaxib in Patients With Alport Syndrome NCT06274489 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.