An Efficacy and Safety Study of Fedratinib Compared to Best Available Therapy in Subjects With DIPSS-intermediate or High-risk Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis and Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersubjectcellpriorin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theand safetyto evaluateefficacy andhepatitis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 53.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 189 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial of Fedratinib in Subjects With DIPSS, Intermediate or High-Risk Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-Polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, or Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis and Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib NCT03755518 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• A Safety and Efficacy Study to Evaluate Luspatercept in Subjects With Myeloproliferative Neoplasm-associated Myelofibrosis Who Have Anemia With and Without Red Blood Cell-transfusion Dependence NCT03194542 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Pevonedistat in Combination With Ruxolitinib for Treatment of Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT03386214 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Assess the Safety, Tolerability Oral PU-H71 in Subjects Taking Ruxolitinib NCT03935555 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Ruxolitinib Phosphate in Treating Patients With Previously Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma NCT03041636 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.