Efficacy of XL184 (Cabozantinib) in Advanced Medullary Thyroid Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerlocally advancedmetastaticrandomizationmelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: subject hasclinically significantstudyat screeningsubject is
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• SOM230 Alone or in Combination With RAD001 in Patients With Medullary Thyroid Cancer NCT01625520 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Adaptive Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) Therapy In Patients With Thyroid Cancer NCT03630120 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Trial of LBH589 in Metastatic Thyroid Cancer NCT01013597 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Targeted Phase I/II Trial of ZD6474 (Vandetanib; ZACTIMA) Plus the Proteasome Inhibitor, Bortezomib (Velcade ), in Adults With Solid Tumors With a Focus on Hereditary or Sporadic, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Medullary Thyroid Cancer (MTC) NCT00923247 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Lenvatinib (E7080) in Subjects With Iodine-131 Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer to Evaluate Whether an Oral Starting Dose of 18 Milligram (mg) Daily Will Provide Comparable Efficacy to a 24 mg Starting Dose, But Have a Better Safety Profile NCT02702388 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.