SOM230 Alone or in Combination With RAD001 in Patients With Medullary Thyroid Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticprogressivepriorentrycancer
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialevaluate theto evaluatediseasestrial to
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2958 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of XL184 (Cabozantinib) in Advanced Medullary Thyroid Cancer NCT00704730 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Iodine I-131 With or Without Selumetinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Thyroid Cancer NCT02393690 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Medical Treatment With SOM230 LAR in Patients With Primary Inoperable Thymoma and/or With Local Recurrent Thymoma to Reduce Tumor Size NCT02021942 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Adaptive Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) Therapy In Patients With Thyroid Cancer NCT03630120 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Study of Anlotinib in Patients With Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma(ALTER01031) NCT02586350 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.