Efficacy and Safety of Oral Salmon Calcitonin in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis (OA 2 Study)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2011-06-30, after 2008-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bonetolerabilityprotocoldefineddisease
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacyto evaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 51 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 51 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 75 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- calcitonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Dose Selection Study of Oral Recombinant Salmon Calcitonin (rsCT) in Normal, Healthy, Postmenopausal Women NCT00620854 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Trial of YH23537 in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02759198 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of SKCPT in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis: Phase III Clinical Trial NCT05930080 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Phase Ib/II Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of LG00034053 in Patients With Knee OA NCT05237752 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Effect of Astaxanthin in Moderate to Severe Knee Osteoarthritis NCT05437601 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.