A Phase Ib/II Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of LG00034053 in Patients With Knee OA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painpatients withgradeplacebo controlledanalgesic
  Phrases that lowered it: single doseevaluate theto evaluateefficacy andadministration
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of GLPG1972/S201086 in Participants With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03595618 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of G001 in Patients With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT05007808 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of LNA043 in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT04864392 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of KA34 in Subjects With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03133676 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of MIV-711 in Osteoarthritis Patients NCT02705625 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.