Study of Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of LNA043 in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1383 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: keyplaceborandomized doublepriordouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsarthritisthe efficacysafetyintra
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of LNA043 in Japanese Osteoarthritis Participants NCT04564053 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ib/II Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of LG00034053 in Patients With Knee OA NCT05237752 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• First-in-human Single Ascending Dose Study of LNA043 in Patients Scheduled for Total Knee Replacement NCT02491281 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Anti-inflammatory (Canakinumab) and Cartilage Stimulating (LNA043) Drugs Injected Into the Knee Joint of Participants With Knee Osteoarthritis (OA) NCT04814368 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of KA34 in Subjects With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03133676 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.