First-in-human Single Ascending Dose Study of LNA043 in Patients Scheduled for Total Knee Replacement

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingkeytolerabilityplacebo controlledpain
  Phrases that lowered it: kneenasalpatientscartilageosteoarthritis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 829 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 219 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study on Safety, Tolerability and Prelimenary Efficacy of LNA043 in Patients Undergoing Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation NCT03334812 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Study of Safety, Tolerability, Preliminary Efficacy of Intra-articular LNA043 Injections in Patients With Articular Cartilage Lesions and Knee Osteoarthritis. NCT03275064 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of LNA043 in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT04864392 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Study of Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of LNA043 in Japanese Osteoarthritis Participants NCT04564053 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of Multiple Intra-articular Injections of LRX712 in Patients With Knee OA NCT04097379 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.