Varenicline (Chantix™) for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-12-31, after 2008-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: colitisrandomizationheartulcerativedisease
Phrases that lowered it: positivealcoholdaysperiodday -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 61 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 60 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6368 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5320 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Varenicline Treatment for Active Alcoholic Smokers NCT01347112 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Human Behavioral Pharmacology Laboratory (HBPL) Study of Varenicline's Impact on Cocaine and Alcohol Craving NCT01151813 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- Varenicline Treatment of Alcohol Dependence in Smokers NCT01553136 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Varenicline for Alcohol Dependence NCT01146613 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Varenicline for Smoking Cessation in Heavy Drinking Smokers NCT00860028 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.