Varenicline Treatment for Active Alcoholic Smokers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (78 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-03-31, after 2011-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subject hassubject iscancertreatingtherapy
Phrases that lowered it: smokingsmokersnicotinelong termtobacco -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 289 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2/3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 289 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 147 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 43910 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 31760 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 41.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Varenicline Treatment of Alcohol Dependence in Smokers NCT01553136 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Extended Varenicline Treatment for Smoking Among Cancer Patients NCT01756885 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Varenicline for Nicotine Dependence Among Those With HIV/AIDS NCT01710137 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Varenicline (Chantix™) for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence NCT00705523 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Varenicline For Smokers In Recovery From Alcohol Dependence NCT01092702 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.