Varenicline for Nicotine Dependence Among Those With HIV/AIDS
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-30, after 2012-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diagnosis ofscoreminiuntreatedeligible
Phrases that lowered it: smokingparticipantshivnicotinealcohol -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 78 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7494 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 206 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 206 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 78 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 54123 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7494 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 44.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry, infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Extended Varenicline Treatment for Smoking Among Cancer Patients NCT01756885 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Optimizing Smoking Cessation for People With HIV/AIDS Who Smoke NCT02460900 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction Treatment NCT01314001 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Varenicline Treatment for Active Alcoholic Smokers NCT01347112 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Effect of Galantamine on Inflammation and Cognition NCT03384784 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.