Optimizing Smoking Cessation for People With HIV/AIDS Who Smoke
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-04-30, after 2016-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: moderatedementiapast monthsscaleto severe
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmokingparticipantsalcoholthe study -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 42.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 156 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- factorial (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 156 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 45 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 66201 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2644 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 42.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Smoking Cessation Interventions for People Living With HIV in Nairobi, Kenya NCT03342027 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Varenicline for Nicotine Dependence Among Those With HIV/AIDS NCT01710137 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Varenicline Among HIV-infected Patients NCT00918307 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Effect of Galantamine on Inflammation and Cognition NCT03384784 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction Treatment NCT01314001 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.