Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diagnosis ofor equalequal toto usedetermine
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsas determineddetermined bypressurehistory
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 35.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 83 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 31809 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 56340 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of ABT-089 on Smoking Abstinence Symptoms and Reward NCT01756053 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• Combination Nicotine Patch / Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation NCT02906644 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Varenicline for Nicotine Dependence Among Those With HIV/AIDS NCT01710137 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of a Tailored Smoking Cessation Treatment Algorithm Based on Initial Treatment Response and Genotype NCT00894166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Extended Varenicline Treatment for Smoking Among Cancer Patients NCT01756885 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.