Combination Nicotine Patch / Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-10-18, after 2016-11-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartpulmonarycoronarypastcancer
Phrases that lowered it: participantsnicotinecombinationthe studysmoking -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 26.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 543 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 543 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 140 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 36053 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5754 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 26.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lorcaserin, nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Role of Nicotine Dose and Route of Delivery in Affecting Adoption of E-cigarettes and Reducing Exposure to Toxic Combustion Products NCT03492463 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Addressing Post Cessation Weight Gain NCT02412631 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of a Tailored Smoking Cessation Treatment Algorithm Based on Initial Treatment Response and Genotype NCT00894166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Combination Bupropion / Varenicline for Smoking Cessation in Male Smokers NCT01806779 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Meclizine as a Potential Smoking Cessation Treatment NCT01443858 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.