Combination Bupropion / Varenicline for Smoking Cessation in Male Smokers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-03-31, after 2013-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpaintumorunlessbrain
Phrases that lowered it: subjectsmaledisordernicotinesmoking -
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 115325 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 284 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 100 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 115325 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12477 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 44.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bupropion, nicotine, varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mechanistic Evaluations of Pre-Cessation Therapies for Smoking Cessation NCT01406223 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Combining Varenicline and Bupropion for Smoking Cessation NCT00943618 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Combination Nicotine Patch / Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation NCT02906644 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of a Tailored Smoking Cessation Treatment Algorithm Based on Initial Treatment Response and Genotype NCT00894166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- The Role of Nicotine Dose and Route of Delivery in Affecting Adoption of E-cigarettes and Reducing Exposure to Toxic Combustion Products NCT03492463 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.