The Role of Nicotine Dose and Route of Delivery in Affecting Adoption of E-cigarettes and Reducing Exposure to Toxic Combustion Products
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-05-31, after 2018-08-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 26.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartcardiacbraindiseasecoronary
Phrases that lowered it: smokingcigarettesnicotineuse ofinvestigate -
Sponsor's past trials: 662 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 42070 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 662 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 178 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 42070 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4649 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 26.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Combination Nicotine Patch / Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation NCT02906644 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Combination of E-cigarettes and Varenicline for Tobacco Harm Reduction NCT04210180 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Combination Bupropion / Varenicline for Smoking Cessation in Male Smokers NCT01806779 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Meclizine as a Potential Smoking Cessation Treatment NCT01443858 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction Treatment NCT01314001 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.