Phase IIa Dose-ranging Study of GSK1349572 in HIV-1 Infected Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitycellthe subjectsubject hastherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: effectsinglepharmacokinetics ofdayscompare
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Compare the Safety and Anti-HIV Effect of GSK1265744 Versus Placebo in HIV-1 Infected Adults (ITZ112929) NCT00920426 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Healthy Volunteer And Patient Study To Assess The Safety, Tolerability And Pharmacokinetics Of GSK1265744 NCT00659191 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study to Evaluate Lower Dose of GSK2248761 in Antiretroviral Treatment-Naive HIV-1 Infected Adults. NCT00945282 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Phase IIb Study to Evaluate a Long-Acting Intramuscular Regimen for Maintenance of Virologic Suppression (Following Induction With an Oral Regimen of GSK1265744 and Abacavir/Lamivudine) in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Infected, Antiretroviral Therapy-Naive Adult Subjects NCT02120352 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study of GSK2248761 in Antiretroviral Therapy-experienced Subjects With NNRTI-resistant HIV Infection NCT01199731 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.