A Phase IIb Study to Evaluate a Long-Acting Intramuscular Regimen for Maintenance of Virologic Suppression (Following Induction With an Oral Regimen of GSK1265744 and Abacavir/Lamivudine) in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Infected, Antiretroviral Therapy-Naive Adult Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectstolerabilitythe safetythe investigator
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineaminotransferaseand safetyheparinlabel
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 23 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 76 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-finding Study of GSK2248761 in Antiretroviral Therapy-Naive Subjects (SIGNET) NCT01231555 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• Dose-finding Study of GSK2248761 in Antiretroviral Therapy-experienced Subjects With NNRTI-resistant HIV Infection NCT01199731 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Study to Compare the Safety and Anti-HIV Effect of GSK1265744 Versus Placebo in HIV-1 Infected Adults (ITZ112929) NCT00920426 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Phase IIa Dose-ranging Study of GSK1349572 in HIV-1 Infected Adults NCT00708110 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Dose Ranging Trial of GSK1349572 and 2 NRTI in HIV-1 Infected, Therapy Naive Subjects NCT00951015 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.