A Dose Ranging Trial of GSK1349572 and 2 NRTI in HIV-1 Infected, Therapy Naive Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreater thansubjectsubjects
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineonce dailyaminotransferasehiv infectedantiretroviral
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 12 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1915 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-finding Study of GSK2248761 in Antiretroviral Therapy-experienced Subjects With NNRTI-resistant HIV Infection NCT01199731 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Dose-finding Study of GSK2248761 in Antiretroviral Therapy-Naive Subjects (SIGNET) NCT01231555 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• A Phase IIb Study to Evaluate a Long-Acting Intramuscular Regimen for Maintenance of Virologic Suppression (Following Induction With an Oral Regimen of GSK1265744 and Abacavir/Lamivudine) in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Infected, Antiretroviral Therapy-Naive Adult Subjects NCT02120352 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study of GSK1349572 Versus Raltegravir (RAL) With Investigator Selected Background Regimen in Antiretroviral-Experienced, Integrase Inhibitor-Naive Adults NCT01231516 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study Assessing the Integrase Inhibitor GSK1349572 in HIV-infected Persons With Virus Resistant to Raltegravir NCT00950859 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.